discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in ethiopia

Crop production showed high correlation with belg and kiremit rainfall; only annual rainfall and barley crops showed stronger correlation. 5.3.1. Significantly, the increasing long-term annual minimum and maximum temperature during the study periods indicates that it is more likely this would contribute to the increase of mean annual temperature. kiremit season (JuneSeptember), belg season (MarchMay), bega season (OctoberFebruary) and annually for all subdivisions, while the long-term trend of temperature was assessed for annual average, annual minimum and maximum temperature. From Figure3, it is confirmed that the maximum temperature has continuously increased by about 1.10 C, whereas the minimum temperature has increased by about 0.70 C. In Ethiopia, as in allplaces in the tropics, the air is frost free and changes in solar angles are small making intensesolar radiation. This happens because the MT-CLIM algorithms VIC incorporates infer an overly large positive trend in atmospheric moisture content in this region, likely due to an underestimate of the effect of increasing aridity on RH. Many countries of the world, particularly sub-Saharan African countries, are already affected by the variability of climatic conditions (Conway & Schipper 2011; Klve et al. 2005). 2014). (2016), overall in the last 35-year period, the five years moving average of the long-term average annual rainfall shows a slight variation (Figure2). Time series of all MMA precipitation indices exhibit significant increasing trends over the 19012099 period. In general, these future projections point towards increases in summertime temperatures and modifications in precipitation across both regions. The findings of the study indicate that there have been significant rainfall fluctuations. The percentage change over a period of time can be obtained from Sen's median slope and mean by assuming the linear trend in the long-term series using the following formula: In statistical terms, the moving average is also known as running average, used in order to explore a set of various data by creating an average value of various subsets for a data set. Throughout the year, 1,160 mm (46 in) of rain fall, with a maximum from June to September, which is the only remarkably rainy period. Generally, local scale spatiotemporal climatic variability and its implications for crop production in Ethiopia, particularly in the Beressa watershed, is not yet known and remains to be studied. Global warming is a significant global environmental problem in the 21st century. Therefore, appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies have to be included in the development agenda to reverse the trend. The Mann-Kendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable. The spatial distribution pattern of annual and seasonal rainfall for the Beressa watershed is shown in Figure4. The study area encompasses six . The researches and analysis in this study indicates that, while climate change is likely to pose serious threats to development in the RM, it also has the potential to bring opportunities. Over the past decades, the minimum and maximum average temperature of Ethiopia have increased by about 0.25 and 0.1 C, respectively. 2005). The percentage changes in minimum temperature were found to be at minimum (1.90%) and maximum (52.40%) in GIN and DBS stations, respectively. Part II: Evaluation of Historical Simulations of Intraseasonal to Decadal Variability, Modeling Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Using Projections of the 5th Assessment Report for the Bernam River Basin, Malaysia, Future Changes in Water Supply and Demand for Las Vegas Valley: A System Dynamic Approach based on CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate Projections, Differentiating Snow and Glacier Melt Contribution to Runoff in the Gilgit River Basin via Degree-Day Modelling Approach, Performance Evaluation and Comparison of Satellite-Derived Rainfall Datasets over the Ziway Lake Basin, Ethiopia, Effect of projected climate change on potential evapotranspiration in the semiarid region of central India, Simulating Streamflow in Response to Climate Change in The Upper Ewaso Ngiro Catchment, Kenya. As presented in Table3, the Sen's slope estimator indicates an upward trend in four stations and a downward trend in three stations for annual rainfall. Water harvesting is particularly important for less rainy seasons and integrated water management, and will provide supplementary irrigation during deficits. During this season, Northeasterly windsoriginating from the landmass of Asia dominantly prevail Ethiopian landmass. The results from the coefficient of variations shown in Table2 revealed that in comparison with the kiremit rainfall season, during the bega and belg seasons rainfall varies considerably more. This study investigates trends of climate extreme indices in the Komadugu-Yobe Basin (KYB) based on observed data of the period 1971-2017 as well as regional climate model (RCM) simulations for the historical period (1979-2005), the near future (2020-2050), and the far future (2060-2090). During the winter season, the Redsea escarpments and some parts of the Afar region receive their main rain. Moving average rainfall and temperature can be obtained by using the following equation: Inverse distance weighted interpolation methods (IDW) have been used in order to analyse annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature. Continuously increasing temperature, together with the variability and fluctuation of seasonal and inter-annual rainfall is a root cause for the decrease and fluctuation of crop production. Figure 1. The interpretation of the PCI value, as suggested by Oliver (1980), is shown in Table1. 2013). The present study aimed to undertake spatiotemporal analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature and its implications. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007 Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Climate Change 2007 the Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis. In the observations, warm spell duration, warm day-, and warm night frequencies exhibit statistically significant positive trends. This development mainly happens in July in Ethiopia and the Horn causingvariability and seasonality.The ITCZ shifts towards south of equator (Tropic of Capricorn) in January. contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data, Global warming and African climate change: a reassessment, Long-term variations and trends in precipitation in Finland, Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation, The value of large-scale climate variables in climate change assessment: the case of Botswana's rainfall, Precipitation climatology over India: validation with observations and reanalysis datasets and spatial trends, Climate change impacts on groundwater and dependent ecosystems, Downscaled climate change projections with uncertainty assessment over India using a high resolution multi-model approach, Precipitation variability in Northeast China from 1961 to 2008, Adapting cropping systems to climate change in Nepal: a cross-regional study of farmers perception and practices, The UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles: improving the accessibility of observed and projected climate information for studies of climate change in developing countries, Trends in daily observed temperature and precipitation extremes over three Ethiopian eco-environments, http://agris.fao.org/agris-search/search.do?recordID=ET2009000029, Analyses of land use and land cover change dynamics using GIS and remote sensing during 1984 and 2015 in the Beressa Watershed Northern Central Highland of Ethiopia, Contrasting climate variability and meteorological drought with perceived drought and climate change in northern Ethiopia, Using the seasonal and temporal precipitation concentration index for characterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in Spain, Spatial and temporal analysis of rainfall and temperature trend of India, Spatio-temporal trend analysis of precipitation data over Rwanda, Monthly precipitation distribution: a comparative index, Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data, Spatial and temporal trends of mean and extreme rainfall and temperature for the 33 urban centers of the arid and semi-arid state of Rajasthan, India, Trend analysis of climatic variables in an arid and semi-arid region of the Ajmer District, Rajasthan, India, Climate variability and educational attainment: evidence from rural Ethiopia, An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai, Assessment of statistical characteristics of point rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia, Assessment of trends in point rainfall using Continuous Wavelet Transforms, Rainfall variability in the Ethiopian and Eritrean highlands and its links with the Southern Oscillation Index, Recent changes in rainfall and rainy days in Ethiopia, Building climate resilience in the Blue Nile/Abay Highlands: a framework for action, Changes in rainfall and relative humidity in river basins in northwest and central India, An investigation into observational characteristics of rainfall and temperature in Central Northeast India a historical perspective 18892008, Long-term historic changes in climatic variables of Betwa Basin, India, Modeling runoffsediment response to land use/land cover changes using integrated GIS and SWAT model in the Beressa watershed, Household level tree planting and its implication for environmental conservation in the Beressa Watershed of Ethiopia, Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation trends under climate change in the upper reach of Mekong River basin, Long-term trend analysis for major climate variables in the Yellow River basin, Spatial analysis of monthly and annual precipitation trends in Turkey, Power of the MannKendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series, Canadian streamflow trend detection: impacts of serial and cross-correlation, Analysis of precipitation characteristics during 19572012 in the semi-arid Loess Plateau, China, Uniform distribution of precipitation (lLow concentration), Moderate distribution of precipitation (moderate concentration), Strong irregularity of precipitation distribution, Republic Export Building,Units 1.04 & 1.05. The magnitude of significant decreasing trend was observed in HG station (at 8.62 mm/year and 27.88%). Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Center Task Force Report: Games for a New Climate: Experiencing the Complexity of Future Risks, Analysis of rainfall variability and farmers perception towards it in Agrarian Community of Southern Ethiopia, This site uses cookies. According to a report made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Parry 2007; Pachauri et al. The future climate also shows a continuing positive trend in the temperature extreme indices as well as more frequent extreme rainfall events. Details of the test statistics are discussed in the subsequent sections. The region is divided in to dry and wet summer rainfall regions.Hence, the wet corresponds to the area having rainfall of 1,000 mm or more. The mean annual temperature varied between 13 and 15.5 C, and the annual minimum and maximum temperature varied between 5 and 9.5 C, respectively. Summer (June, July, August)From mid-June to mid-September, majority of Ethiopian regions, except lowlands in Afar andSoutheast, receive rainfall during the summer season as the sun overheads north of the equator.High pressure cells develop on the Atlantic and Indian Oceans around the tropic of CapricornAlthough, the Atlantic contributes a lot, the Indian Oceans is also sources of rainfall. During the belg (small rainy) season the subdivision indicates a slightly increasing rainfall trend and the bega season (dry season) shows a negative trend, as already presented in Figure2. The guidelines for interpretation are presented in Table1. At the annual scale, maximum and minimum temperatures significantly increased in over 33% of the Basin at a rate of 0.1 and 0.15 C per decade, respectively; however, the western part (12%) of. In Ethiopia and elsewhere in the Horn,temperature shows seasonal variations. Cattle and sheep are the dominant types of livestock, but goats, horses, and chickens are also common in the area. The monthly rainfall data are for 132 points of 10 10 km grids reconstructed from weather stations and meteorological satellite observations, which cover the period between 1983 and 2013. When the tropical depression is observed in the SWIO, the daily rainfall is significantly decreased. The spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature distribution are presented in Figures4 and 5 respectively. Both increasing and decreasing trends of climatic variables were observed. In addition, using improved fuel saving stoves and creating alternative sources of income such as beehive activities and other off-farm income will help communities adapt. According to Anderson (1942), in order to exclude the influence of serial correlation, before using MK test statistics, serial autocorrelation is tested by Lag-I autocorrelation using different levels of significance (0.01, 0.05 and 0.1%). Five years moving average rainfall (19802014). Based on these observations, the rainfall pattern and distribution of the area could be classified as irregular and erratic distribution. This study presents a largely indicator-based assessment of past and projected climate change, impacts and the associated vulnerabilities of and risks to ecosystems, agriculture, water recourses, forestry, bioclimatic conditions, human health and society in the RM, based on a wide range of observations and different model simulations. The rate and variability of increasing temperature have dramatically increased, making it more difficult for local communities to foresee the intensity and magnitude of temperature even for the next few years. Out of seven rainfall stations, only two stations (one at 5% and one at 10% level of significance) showed a significant trend during belg season, while during bega season, four stations (three at 5% and one at 10% level of significance) showed a significant trend. The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, while simulated historical and future climate data were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) datasets under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5. To encompass the system, it needs an understanding of the position of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITC), pressure cells, and Trade Winds. As shown in Figure2, during the period 19802014 the seasonal rainfall trend of the Beressa watershed for the kiremit season shows less rainfall variability throughout the study periods. Air temperature estimation using remote sensing satellite provides a new way of conducting studies in the field of climate change study. After visual identification of the outliers, each of the values was obtained using a normal ratio technique. The calculated PCI for seasonal as well as inter-annual rainfall distribution for the spatiotemporal time series is shown in Table2. Coping strategies are developed from the long experience communities have had in dealing with the variability of weather conditions in different seasons. Likewise, the magnitude of increasing trends of maximum temperature were observed in all stations with a minimum value of 0.023 C/year in GIN station and a maximum value of 0.21 C/year in ENW station. In contrast to the kiremit season, the five years' moving average annual rainfall of the bega season during the period 19802014 was highly variable. Correlation between crop production, and rainfall and temperature (19972014). Observed Data Despite the importance of soil moisture, studies on soil moisture characteristics in Ethiopia are less documented. All crop production shows considerably high correlation with maximum temperature and stronger correlation with barley, while in the case of minimum temperature, poor correlation was observed for all crops. Another study by Di Falco et al. It is a rainfall region in the southwestern partof the country. The reduction in precipitation is projected to be steepest over Northwestern Province and lessens southwards. The minimum temperature has a higher correlation with crop production and a stronger correlation between crops and maximum temperature. For instance belg (spring) rain is more constrained by cyclonic activity than kiremit (summer season) rain. On the other hand, 19 years (54.3%) recorded more than the annual average rainfall. 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