cook partisan voting index by state
The composition of those new districts will likely change the PVI rating and could impact how those states are represented in Congress moving forward. Wyoming is rated R+25, with nearly 70 percent of voters supporting Donald Trump in 2016 and Mitt Romney in 2012. So, I was thinking if we really want to go large, and contribute something to the broader blogosphere, that goes beyond a purportedly more accurate version of PVI, that really affects the larger conversation about what a district can and cant support, maybe we should try categorizing districts in terms of 20 or 25 typologies. In fact, CalifornianInTexas has already gone ahead and started calculating these numbers. Cook,Partisan,Voting,IndexThe,Cook,Partisan,Voting,Index,,also,called,PVI,,is,a,measurement,of,how,strongly,a,United,States,congressional,district,or,state,l. The most Democratic-leaning state to have a Republican senator is Maine (D+2 PVI), represented by Susan Collins. 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Post, June 8, 2022, The One Group That Can Stop Elon Musk from Unbanning Trump on Twitter,Slate, May 10, 2022, Facebook and Twitter Could Let Trump Back Online. There are actually two PVI's calculated: one for each state, and a separate for each Congressional district. Cook observed the following challenges in its 2017 PVI summary:[6]. Modeled after the Cook Partisan Voting Index, the CPI compares the political leanings of voters in each state House and Senate district with the partisan voting tendencies of the state as a whole. Modeled after the Cook Partisan Voting Index, the Hybrid Partisan Voting Index (hPVI) was developed for Wilkerson Public Affairs by Braedon Wilkerson in 2014. July 13, 2022 | The Cook Political Report Now that all 50 states have finalized new lines for the 2022 elections, the Cook Political Report is pleased to introduce the 25th Anniversary edition of the Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI) for all 50 states and 435 congressional districts, reflecting new post-redistricting boundaries. The Cook Partisan Voting Index measures how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans towards the Democrat or Republican Party at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole. If certain, wed put them in the solid D or solid R bin, and if uncertain, wed still get an idea of how big the swing block is, and whether they lean D or R. Now, even if we do an abstract version of this, via polling, we (or anyone else) would still need to put in a ton of groundwork into gathering this data. The proposed SVI, comparing numbers within one election, doesnt solve this problem either. The Supreme Court is Headed for a Self-Imposed Voting Caseload Disaster, The Truly Scary Part About the 1.6 Billion Conservative Donation. Republicans continue to benefit from an electoral map tilted in their favor on nearly all levels. If the site uses only PVI, we overstate GOP strength based on the Bush 2004 GOTV operation which no longer exists and ignore the shift in party ID over the last few years. Although the House's pro-GOP skew didn't budge much either way as a result of new maps, the number of competitive seats declined. I know this community is fully capable of completing such a thorough analysis. (2) The rest of the political world will be using PVIs, which could make it harder for SSP analysis to translate to outside readers I think the SVI is better. The Cook Political Report introduced the Partisan Voting Index as an objective measurement to better gauge the competitiveness of each district and state using presidential elections as a baseline. However, they are also the highest-profile results, easily influenced by personalities and unique characteristics of individual candidates. The party representations are based on the winners of the 2012 general election. But people are going to consider an R+7 district to be solidly Republican, even thought it barely went to Obama. That would make it a more accurate gauge of true feeling, and it would be relatively easy to do. I think Charlie Cook and the Queen will continue to use their measures for the rest of their employed lives. We hear a lot these days about red states and blue states, but what does that really mean? Is the 118th Congress Headed for a Wreck? Maybe there is a good reason we are not seeing? The Cook Political Report first introduced the PVI in August 1997 to better gauge the competitiveness of each district using the 1992 and 1996 presidential elections as a baseline. For the 2022 dataset, that means that the 2020 result in each state or district is weighted three times as heavily as the 2016 result. If Obamas national win was just over 7%, every district with an SVI of up to R+7 is actually a Democratic district. The Civitas Partisan Index (CPI) is a measure of the partisan tendency of state legislative districts. Should it be in addition to the PVI? A Cook PVI score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, the state or district performed about two points more Democratic in terms of two-party vote share than the nation did as a whole, while a score of R+4 means the state or district performed about four points more Republican. Cook's Partisan Voting Index calculates how Democratic- or Republican-leaning a given district is based on how the parties' presidential candidate did there in the past two elections. So, Im asking the community: Should we use the SVI? Either way, PVI or SVI, you get a nice take on whether party nominee is overachieving or under-performing in comparison to the top of his/her ticket. A Partisan Voting Index score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, that district performed an average of two points more Democratic than the nation did as a whole, while an R+4 means the district performed four points more Republican than the national average. However, if you are going to take the lead, it makes sense to try to do this carefully. map by state after the 2020 election The Cook Partisan Voting Index ( abbreviated CPVI or PVI) is a measurement of how powerfully a United States congressional district or department of state leans toward the democratic or Republican Party, compared to the state as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the former two presidential elections. Presidential votes will be way off sometimes because of home-state advantage or other special circumstances. For the most part, these will be more favorable to Dems, as the big Kerry minus Obama splits are removed from the equation. So in that I do disagree with those who think Swing State analysis should be based on the industry standard rather than the most accurate in the industry. House Map - Election Results 2010 - The New York Times, http://www.electiondataservices.com/r09wTables.pdf, Meat processing & products: Long-Term Contribution Trends | OpenSecrets. Our full 2022 Cook PVI report is available for subscribers. GWU Legal Studies Research Paper No. According to Politico, the PVI is designed to "provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength in a congressional district. "[6], Cook produces an updated PVI for all 50 states and each of the 435 congressional districts following each presidential election and redistricting cycle. L. Rev. [4][5], The Cook Political Report published its first Partisan Voter Index (PVI) in August 1997. Since we first launched the Cook PVI in 1997, there's been a dramatic increase in "straight-ticket" voting, with fewer voters choosing candidates of different parties for the White House and Congress. Trending Democratic, and also increasingly willing to vote Dem downticket, although often in reaction to terrible GOP incumbents. Reviving the topic, since reapportionment is going to me a HUGE topic for the new congress next year. Youre going to see a lot more of those with Obamas numbers because his margin of victory was much larger. It makes a lot more sense. UCLA School of Law How Effective is COVID-19 Economic Stimulus? If we can approximate this data via some other measure, that would be quite useful. The Cook Political Report is an online source for non-partisan political analysis that many rely on for accurate political forecasting. The calculations are based upon the two-party vote. I agree with the majority sentiment that it seems to make more sense to compare 2000 district performance with 2000 nationwide performance, not 2004 nationwide performance. 61, Anita S. Krishnakumar, Cracking the Whole Code Rule (February 19, 2020). Copyright 2023 by Cook Political Report. TN-04: Appalachian rural district with a history of voting Democratic downballot (and upticket too until lately), but trending away from us fast at all levels. 48 Florida State University Law Review 61 (2021), Spencer Overton, Power to Regulate Social Media Companies to Prevent Voter Suppression. Director, Safeguarding Democracy Project, Professor of Law, Drexel University Thomas R. Kline School of Law@tabathaabuelhajView posts , Frank G. Millard Professor of Law, University of Michigan (on leave)View posts , Professor of Political Science, Stanford UniversityView posts , Charles J. Ogletree Jr. Obama MAY be able to improve for 2012 if he does really well, but this may be a once in a half-generation sorta thing. The floors all tilt in a mostly uniform fashion. For the 2022 dataset, that means that the 2020 result in each state district is weighted three times as heavily as the 2016 result. The Cook Partisan Voting Index measures how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans towards the Democrat or Republican Party at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole. Why do states in the North perform better than states elsewhere in terms of education? SVI would also be a good microtargeting tool, but something tells me that it would just be an under/overperformance scale and wouldnt be as cross-comparable. Its definitely a good idea to take the lead in developing a more rational version of PVI. [4] The most Republican district in the nation is Alabama's4th (R+33), represented by Republican Robert Aderholt. Help expand Ballotpedia's elections coverage - volunteer with us, The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI) is a measurement tool that scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. (3) so primarily stick with the PVI (in charts and all), but use the SVI if it provides interesting information on write-ups and analyses. (Cook PVI) is a service mark of Invincible Summer Media, Inc. Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race. From Simple English Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Cook Partisan Voting Index is the unit used to calculate how much a particular place leans towards each party.
More than two-thirds of Californias 53 congressional districts lean Democratic, as do those in the southern half of Texas and the eastern coasts of Oregon and Washington. All Rights Reserved. The PVIs for states are calculated based on the results of the U.S. presidential elections in 2016 and 2020. Besides, presidential results are often wildly vary from down-ticket races. [4]. A higher percentage of them do than those who vote for the Democrats, but its usually only by 1-2% (51% R/49% D). The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or U.S. state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections. The only way I can see to avoid this is to have the letter (R or D) always indicate which party won the district and the number indicate by how much. Another option would be to average the House, Senate, and Presidential numbers, so we dont rely exclusively on the Presidential race to define a districts lean. I could only find the Cook PVI ratings on dKosopedia, but I don't think I can mention Daily Kos as an objective source. 2020-23, GWU Law School Public Law Research Paper No. Large portions of the U.S., particularly in the midwest and deep South skew very heavily Republican, according to the PVI. WASHINGTON The 2010 census report coming out Tuesday will include a boatload of good political news for Republicans and grim data for Democrats hoping to re-elect President Barack Obama and rebound from last month's devastating elections. But Hes Still a Danger. First introduced in 1997, the Cook PVI measures how each state and district performs at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole. 1793 (2020), Nicholas Stephanopoulos, The Sweep of the Electoral Power (October 20, 2020). These results are automatically generated from Google. OH-03, PA-04: Rust Belt districts that mix urban and rural components; ancestrally Democratic but trending away from us as unionists die off, but still amenable to pro-labor socially conservative Dems. An X +00 indicates an evenly balanced district. [4], The PVIs for congressional districts are calculated based on the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. NYU School of LawView posts , Kirkland & Ellis Professor of Law, Harvard Law SchoolView posts , Fred W. & Vi Miller Dean and Professor of Law
The Texas 13th district, covering the states northern panhandle and the city of Amarillo, has the highest Republican-leaning score, coming in at R+33. Hardly a day hardly a post goes by here at the Swing State Project without a reference to the Cook Political Reports Partisan Vote Index, or PVI for short. The letter (either a D for Democratic or an R for Republican) reflects the major party toward which the district (or state) leans. The PVI is developed using vote data from the most recent presidential election as well as vote data from the previous presidential election. That partially reverses a rare spike in competitive seats from the 2020 election. . Then everyone will see which system proves the more accurate. Introduced in 1997, The Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) was developed for The Cook Political Report by Polidata Inc.. [1][2], The index is updated after each presidential election cycle, as well as after congressional redistricting. The Cook Partisan Voting Index of Congressional District 13, which includes Oakland and Berkeley, is D+40, making it the most Democratic congressional district in California and the fourth most Democratic district in the US. [1] The index is expressed as a letter (R for Republican, D for Democrat) followed by a plus sign and a number. 1984 and 1988 were the last times the electorate was so tilted and that, of course, was for the GOP. As younger people continue to move to cities for jobs in technology and other sectors, this trend appears likely to continue. The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or U.S. state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections. One more election like the last two (hope, hope) and dealing with the Cook PVI will be like dealing with the grade in the Grand Canyon. "The House is less 'elastic' than ever not just because the share of swing seats has cratered, but because voters are splitting their tickets less frequently. By the most stringent measure, the CPI was accurate in over 94% of legislative races. The PVI is determined by comparing each congressional district's presidential vote to the national presidential election results. Prior to its April 2009 update, the PVI formula was calculated by comparing district-level results for the past two presidential elections to nationwide results for only the most recent election. As we head into next years election, lets take a look at what we are likely to see based on how partisan the states really are. SVI will average to 0, and PVI will not. The PVI was developed by Charles Cook, editor and publisher of Cook, and scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. Thus a district with an R+15 is a district that voted 15 percentage points (as an average of its 2000 and 2004 presidential vote) higher for Bush than the national value of 51.2%. Its tempting to almost use 2000 no matter what as one baseline considering the calculations since the election was as close as it was. But for places that have seen rapid shifts towards one party or the other in the last six years such as in South Florida or suburbs of Dallas the new formula "leans in" to the transformation underway. . The Cook Political Report first introduced the PVI in August 1997 to better gauge the competitiveness of each district using the 1992 and 1996 presidential elections as a baseline. For this volume, the PVI includes an average of the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections in the district as the partisan indicator. The PVI is designed to reflect the unique partisan nature of each congressional district. Look at it this way, if the PVU and SVI are the same in a distirct, that tells you the GOP isnt losing a bit of their support come Hell or high water. I guess I dont see the value of seeing how much more republican or more demcoratic a district is than a national average. & Mary L. Rev. The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI) is a measurement tool that scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. Available here, with maps for each congressional district and state. The PVI value is calculated by a comparison of the district average for the party nominee, compared to the 2004 national value for the party nominee. In the Senate, the most Republican-leaning state to have a Democratic senator is West Virginia (R+22 PVI), represented by Joe Manchin. I realize the point is to compare the district to the national average, but Im not sure how useful that information is when predicting whos going to win in a district. The Hybrid Partisan Voting Index was introduced as an objective measurement to better gauge the competitiveness of political districts and subdivisions using presidential and gubernatorial elections as a baseline. Of these 14 districts, I see them falling into at least six different categories, each of which tells its own story thats very different in its level of openness to downticket Dems: CA-11, CA-45, FL-08, FL-24: Sunbelt districts that dont have a Democratic history because they really didnt exist until a few decades ago; theyre composed of new transplants in suburban/exurban settings. Colorado would decide the election, resulting in a 272-266 Democratic win or a 275-263 Republican win. Following each election and round of redistricting, presidential results are compiled to generate PVI scores for each congressional district. In a few states, these results are aggregated by district by state and/or local election authorities. [4], The Cook PVI is displayed as a letter, a plus sign, and a number. Yeah. Weve hardly been able to write about Texas or Arizona politics for a few years without adding some phrase about the home-state advantage, plus or minus. Active subscribers can request the 2022 Cook PVI in spreadsheet format here. Refers to the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) as used by Charlie Cook, Washington's foremost political handicapper. Cook provided the following explanation of a sample PVI in its 2017 PVI summary: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r
